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AgriCharts Market CommentaryDo you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily. Corn Rallies Double DigitsCorn futures came back off the highs a bit in the afternoon, but still ended the day with 2.5% to 3.5% gains. Dec futures were up the most, lowering new crop carry to 11 cents Dec to Mar ‘21. This morning, USDA announced a large export sale of 110,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations - split 28% old crop and 72% new crop. In the weekly export sales report corn bookings were 377,188 MT for old crop and 553,144 MT for new crop. Of the old crop sales, China purchased 76,500 MT, but South Korea was the largest buyer on the week. China was the top destination for the week’s corn exports, with 30% of the total 1.333 MMT. FSA reported 81.12m acres were certified planted for corn as of July 31. That was the lowest confirmed August planting since data became available in ’07. Note that with coronavirus impacts there could be a backlog of registrations and paperwork. The monthly CASDE (China’s Ag Ministry supply and demand estimates) has 2020/21 corn use at 288 MMT.
--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management Soybeans Close with Double Digit GainsThursday soy trading had beans and meal in the black with oil lower. Front month bean futures ended the day with gains of as much as 17 1/4 cents through July ’21. MTD soy deliveries are 220 bean contracts, 1,780 meal contracts, and 764 oil contracts. Soymeal futures closed the day with $7.90 to $8.30/ton gains. Soy oil futures were 33 to 40 points in the red at the closing bell. Via mandatory announcements, China bought 197,000 MT of new crop beans, and 202,000 MT were sold to unknown by US exporters. From the weekly Export Sales report 570,100 MT of old crop beans were booked. China purchased 73.8% of the total on the week. New crop purchases were also above expectations with 2.84 MMT. China booked 1.71 MMT, and 872,500 MT were sold to unknown. Soymeal export sales were below expectations with 252,366 MT sold on the week ending August 6. That was split 182k for 2019/20 and 70k for NMY. NMY bean oil bookings were 48,700 MT, and the largest bean oil forward sale for any week since September 23 2010. Analysts estimate 172 mbu of beans were processed by NOPA crushers in July. Bean oil stocks are estimated at 1.688b lbs.
--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management Wheat Markets Recover on ThursdayAt the closing bell on Thursday, the domestic wheat futures markets were in the black. Chicago futures closed the day 5 1/2 to 6 1/2 cents higher. KC HRW futures were up by 6 to 7 1/4 cents. Spring wheat futures rallied 2 to 4 3/4 cents on the day. The weekly Export Sales report noted 357,900 MT of wheat booked on the week ending August 6. That was down 39% wk/wk and 20% below the same week last year. Accumulated commitments through the first 10 weeks are 7.78% ahead of last year’s pace. The August WASDE has 975 mbu of wheat to be exported this MY. That increased the U.S. market share 0.29 ppts yr/yr to 14.12% of the global export supply. That shift came mainly via EU and Ukraine, which are forecasted with 14% and 9.5% market shares respectively. Egypt’s GASC purchased 415,000 MT of Russian wheat in their tender on Thursday. Jordan issued an international wheat tender for 120k MT.
--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management Cattle Close MixedOn Thursday, front month cattle futures closed 27 to 70 cents higher in the 2020 contracts. The deferred futures were down 12 to 27 cents. There were another 6 tenders against August futures yesterday, MTD deliveries are at 18 contracts. USDA noted light Thursday trading from $103 to $106. The bulk of the week’s trades have been $104-$105 in the South and mostly $104-107 in the North. Dressed sales have been mostly $165-170 so far this week. Feeder cattle futures closed down by 30 to 62 cents on Thursday. The August 11 Feeder Cattle Index from CME rebounded 20 cents to $142.62. Beef export sales from the week ending August 6 were 11,599 MT. That was down 13% wk/wk and 28% below bookings from the same week in 2019. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher again in the PM report, widening the Chc/Sel spread to $13.54. Choice boxes were up $1.86, and Select was $1.42 higher. USDA’s estimates WTD cattle slaughter at 465k head through Thursday. That trails last year by 1,000 head.
--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management Hogs Higher at Thursday CloseLean hog futures closed the Thursday session with gains of 20 to 80 cents. August ended the day at $53.70 ahead of Friday’s expiration. The Lean Hog Index from CME was $53.82 for August 11, which was a 3 cent increase. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price for Thursday afternoon was quoted at $37.51, down by 17 cents. The Weekly Export Sales report had pork bookings at a low 10,481 MT for the week ending August 6. That was about half of the same week yr/yr, and the lowest since COVID-19 afflicted sales in May. Shipments from the report were 34,900 MT, which was 1.5% higher wk/wk and up 32% on the year. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was up $1.32 to $73.76. USDA estimated 1.874 million hogs slaughtered WTD through Thursday. That trails the same week last year by 23k head.
--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management Cotton Closes off HighsAt the closing bell on Thursday, front month cotton futures were 59 to 79 points higher. Dec fell back 48 points from the day’s high. For the first week of the MY, cotton export sales were 6,891 RBs, with 2.883m RBs in unshipped sales from 19/20 rolled over to 20/21. New Crop commitments are at 6.289M RBs to start the MY. Cotton exports on the week were 322,167 RBs, down 24,592 RBs wk/wk. The week’s sales on The Seam through Wednesday were 3,075 bales at an average gross price of 61.95 cents/lb. The Cotlook A index for Aug 12 was up another 50 points to 69.5 cents/lb. The AWP for cotton is 49.44 cents/lb and LDP is 2.56 cents/lb, with fresh numbers after the close.
--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management Market Commentary provided by: |
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