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Cattle Close with Thursday Gains

Front month fat cattle futures closed the day off the highs, but were still up by 22 to 77 cents. April futures are a $3.55 to $4.55 premium to the cash market. The bonus Thursday auction on Central Stockyards resulted in no additional sales. Packers bid to $115 but asks were upped to $116. Southern trade has been $115 for the week so far. Feeder cattle futures closed the session with $1.25 to $1.80 gains. March feeders rolled off the board at $136.15. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $134.86 on 3/23, up by 22 cents.   

Beef export sales were a 3-week low 18,872 MT. USDA confirmed Japan was the top buyer, followed by South Korea and China. Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were higher on Thursday. Choice boxes were up $1.61 to $236.4 cwt. and Select was quoted at $226.25 after a $2.18 increase. USDA’s estimates the week to date FI cattle slaughter at 474k head through Thursday. That is up 12,000 head on the week, but trails the same week last year by 17,000 head.

Apr 21 Cattle  closed at $119.550, up $0.425,

Aug 21 Cattle  closed at $120.375, up $0.625,

Mar 21 Feeder Cattle  closed at $136.150, up $0.375

Apr 21 Feeder Cattle  closed at $144.225, up $1.775

Corn Gives Back on Thursday

At the close, corn prices were 3 to 6 3/4 cents weaker, led by May. A Bloomberg survey shows the average trade guess for corn planting intentions in next week’s report is 93.13m acres.  

Analysts surveyed ahead of the Quarterly Grain Stocks on average expect USDA to show 7.750 bbu of corn inventory as of March 1. If realized that would be 201 mbu (2.53%) tighter yr/yr. USDA’s latest WASDE forecast was for carryout to be 417 mbu (21.7%) tighter by September. 

USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 4.482 MMT of old crop corn was booked for the week ending 3/18. China’s large sales announced previously accounted for 87% of the total. Corn exports from the same week were reported at 2.036 MMT, which left commitments at 64.99 MMT (2.558 bbu). Outside of the weekly report, USDA confirmed private exporters sold 110,000 MT of old crop corn to Japan.

IGC raised their forecasted 20/21 world output to 1.139 billion MT. Carryout was left UNCH as the extra 5 MMT were shifted to exports and consumption. For the preliminary 21/22 projections, IGC sees 1.193 billion MT of corn production. Domestic use is expected to surge, as IGC projects stocks shrinking 10 MMT despite a 54 MMT larger crop.

May 21 Corn  closed at $5.46 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents,

Jul 21 Corn  closed at $5.32 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash was $5.32, down 6 3/8 cents,

Dec 21 Corn  closed at $4.65 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents,

New Crop Cash was $4.38 1/5, down 3 3/8 cents,

Soybeans Weaker on Thursday

The Thursday soy complex was mixed, with meal recovering some more from the recent decline. Soymeal prices were up $2.90 to $3.60/ton. Soybean oil futures on the other hand were down sharply. May bean oil was lock limit lower all afternoon, with the other nearbys down by 192 to 222 points. Soybeans ended the Thursday session with double digit losses of 11 to 18 1/2 cents.  A Bloomberg survey of analyst expectations highlights the trade average guess for soybean intentions is 90.1m acres ahead of the Prospective Plantings report on Wednesday.  

Analysts surveyed ahead of the Quarterly Grain Stocks expect to see 1.537 bbu of soybean stocks in the report. If realized that would be down 718.26 mbu (32%) yr/yr. USDA has projected that the full year’s carryout would shrink by 405 mbu (77%). 

Soybean export bookings came in on the low end of pre report ideas, with 101,822 MT for 2020/21 delivery and 65k MT for new crop sold. Sales to China were reported at just 649 MT. For soymeal, USDA showed 167,847 MT was sold for the week ending 3/18. Bean oil bookings were 13,153 MT on the week.

The International Grains Council released their preliminary outlook for global 201/22 soy output at 383 MMT. That would be up 22 MMT from their 20/21 forecast, leaving an extra 5 MMT for ending stocks estimated at 50 MMT.

May 21 Soybeans  closed at $14.14 1/4, down 18 1/2 cents,

Jul 21 Soybeans  closed at $14.04 1/2, down 16 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash was $13.84 2/7, down 18 1/8 cents,

Nov 21 Soybeans  closed at $12.14 3/4, down 13 1/2 cents,

New Crop Cash was $11.63 1/1, down 13 3/8 cents,

Fresh Highs for Hogs Continue

Lean hog futures faded new highs to close the overnight gaps, but roared back to triple digit gains for the close. For April futures that was 8th new life of contract high for this month. The CME Lean Hog Index was $93.85 on 3/23 after another 37 cent bump. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price for Thursday afternoon was up $1.94 to $94.12.  

USDA reported the March 1 all hog inventory was 74.773m head. That was down 1.84% compared to 2020, while the average trade guess was for a minute increase. Hogs kept for breeding were counted at 6.215m head, which was down 2.5% instead of the expected 1.3% decline. March to May farrowing intentions are 3.07m head which is down 2.5% compared to an expected 0.8% drop. The pig crop from Dec-Feb was 33.270m head.

USDA reported the week’s pork export sales at 38,701 MT with China representing nearly a third. Pork cutout futures were also triple digits stronger with gains of as much as $1.65 on Thursday. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value backed off in the PM report, down $1.23 to $109.24. Hams were quoted $7.29 lower and bellies were down $5.89. USDA estimated the week’s FI hog slaughter at 1.922 million head. That is down from over 2m head at the same point for the comparative week in 2020.

Apr 21 Hogs  closed at $99.675, up $1.900,

Jun 21 Hogs  closed at $103.325, up $1.275

Apr 21 Pork Cutout  closed at $108.650, up $1.350,

Cotton Closes Limit Down

Old crop cotton futures closed the limited 4 cents lower on Thursday. Expanded limits for tomorrow is a full nickel/lb. For April contracts, the limit loss left prices at the lowest level for the calendar year, pushing the board back to late December price levels. New crop futures were also 347 to 392 points weaker.

The weekly Export Sales data release from USDA showed 271,194 RBs were sold in the week ending March 18. That was down 38% from last week and was 21% below sales from the same week last year. cotton shipments were confirmed at 313,514 RBs on the same week, which brought the accumulated export to 9.146m RBs. That is 16% ahead of last season’s pace and remains the largest cotton shipment pace now through 33 weeks.

USDA’s 3/25 DSQ report showed just 279 bales were sold at spot. The Cotlook A index for March 24 was down another penny to 89.50 cents/lb. USDA’s FSA lowered the AWP for cotton by 2.9 cents to 68.55 cents/lb.

May 21 Cotton  closed at 78.44, down 400 points,

Jul 21 Cotton  closed at 79.52, down 400 points,

Dec 21 Cotton  closed at 76.55, down 383 points

Thursday Losses add to Downside for Wheat

Domestic wheat futures ended the Thursday round with more weakness. CBT futures ended the day down 8 to 12 1/4 cents. KC HRW futures were down 8 1/2 to 9 1/2 cents, which tightened the Chi-KC spread to 45 cents/bu. The Chi-MPLS spread is now a premium for spring wheat in old crop contracts. Minneapolis HRS futures ended the day down by 7 1/2 to 9 1/2 cents. 

The average trade estimates going into next Wednesday’s reports show analysts expect to see 1.271 bbu of wheat stocks. If realized that would be 144.25 mbu lower than last year.

USDA reported 343,573 MT of old crop wheat was booked during the week ending 3/18. With 658,836 MT of wheat shipped as well, total commitments are at 24.854 MMT. Old crop commitments are even with last year’s pace. New crop sales were reported at 70,500 MT, bringing the total forward sales to 1.095 MMT.  That is 13% above the forward bookings at the same point last season.

International tender activity shows Ethiopia is in the market for 400,000 MT of wheat. South Korea is tendering for 130,000 MT of feed grade wheat. In a previous tender South Korea bought 60,000 MT of optional origin wheat. Philippines passed on offers for the 155,000 MT tender.

IGC’s initial world wheat output forecast for 21/22 is for 790 MMT. That is up from their 774 MMT estimate for 20/21. The International Grains Council sees 21/22 carryout 12 MMT higher to 304 MMT. Russia’s IKAR raised their 2021 wheat production forecast by 800k MT to 78.8 MMT – citing a mild winter and favorable growing conditions thus far. 

Cash SRW Wheat  was $5.85 3/8, down 12 1/4 cents,

May 21 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.12 1/2, down 12 1/4 cents,

Jul 21 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.08 1/2, down 10 1/4 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  was $5.31 1/9, down 9 1/2 cents,

May 21 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.66 3/4, down 9 1/2 cents,

Jul 21 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.73, down 9 1/4 cents,

May 21 MGEX Wheat  closed at $6.17 1/2, down 9 1/2 cents,

Corn Off Lows Still in Red

Corn futures were sharply lower early, but have bounced back. Old crop futures are down 3 to 4 1/4 cents, while new crop prices are 2 1/4 to 2 1/2 cents lower.  

USDA’s weekly Export Sales report showed 4.482 MMT of old crop corn was booked for the week ending 3/18. China’s large sales announced previously accounted for 87% of the total. Corn exports from the same week were reported at 2.036 MMT, which left commitments at 64.99 MMT (2.558 bbu). Outside of the weekly report, USDA confirmed private exporters sold 110,000 MT of old crop corn to Japan.

For milo, USDA reported 60,839 MT were sold. That was down from 267k last week and down from 107k MT from the same week last year.  All of it went to China.

May 21 Corn  is at $5.49, down 4 1/4 cents,

Jul 21 Corn  is at $5.34, down 3 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash is at $5.34 3/8, down 4 cents,

Dec 21 Corn  is at $4.66 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

New Crop Cash is at $4.39 1/3, down 2 1/4 cents,

Double Digit Losses for Soybeans

So far soybeans are down double digits. Old crop futures are 12 to 12 1/4 cents in the red. New crop prices are down 8 1/2 to 9 1/4 cents. Soymeal futures are trading $2.70 to $2.80 per ton in the black, but bean oil futures are down 148 to 247 points. May is 3 points off a limit move, coming just three days after a limit move in the other direction

Soybean bookings came in on the low end of pre report ideas, with 101,822 MT for 2020/21 delivery and 65k MT for new crop sold. The weekly data release showed 501,409 MT were shipped, which left total commitments at 60.7 MMT (2.232 bbu). Sales to China were reported at just 649 MT. For soymeal, USDA showed 167,847 MT was sold for the week ending 3/18. Meal shipments were 281,567 MT which left total commitments at 8.797 MMT.  Bean oil bookings were 13,153 MT on the week. Total soy oil commitments are now 51% of the forecast with 635k MT.

May 21 Soybeans  are at $14.20 1/2, down 12 1/4 cents,

Jul 21 Soybeans  are at $14.09, down 12 cents,

Nearby Cash is at $13.90 3/7, down 12 cents,

Nov 21 Soybeans  are at $12.19 3/4, down 8 1/2 cents,

New Crop Cash is at $11.68 1/1, down 8 1/2 cents,

Near Limit Losses for Cotton

Triple digit midday losses in cotton have old crop futures within 25 points of a limit loss. July futures are down the most so far with a 380 point drop. New crop prices are also lower with Dec down 312 points to 77.26 cents. A strong dollar isn’t helping, with the DX hitting the highest mark since November.

The weekly Export Sales data release from USDA showed 271,194 RBs were sold in the week ending March 18. That was down 38% from last week and was 21% below sales from the same week last year. cotton shipments were confirmed at 313,514 RBs on the same week, which brought the accumulated export to 9.146m RBs. That is 16% ahead of last season’s pace and remains the largest cotton shipment pace now through 33 weeks.

USDA’s DSQ report showed just 577 bales were sold at spot. The Cotlook A index for March 24 was down another penny to 89.50 cents/lb. The AWP for cotton is 71.45 cents/lb, and will be updated this afternoon after the close.

May 21 Cotton  is at 78.67, down 377 points,

Jul 21 Cotton  is at 79.72, down 380 points,

Dec 21 Cotton  is at 77.26, down 312 points

Wheat Down Double Digits at Midday

Wheat markets continue lower through midday, with SRW down double digits. Chicago SRW futures are 9 to 12 3/4 cents lower so far led by old crop. HRW prices are 8 1/4 to 9 1/2 cents weaker so far. MGE spring wheat is trading 6 to 9 1/4 cents in the red.

USDA reported 343,573 MT of old crop wheat was booked during the week ending 3/18. With 658,836 MT of wheat shipped as well, total commitments are at 24.854 MMT. Old crop commitments are even with last year’s pace. New crop sales were reported at 70,500 MT, bringing the total forward sales to 1.095 MMT.  That is 13% above the forward bookings at the same point last season.

International tender activity shows Ethiopia is in the market for 400,000 MT of wheat. South Korea is tendering for 130,000 MT of feed grade wheat. In a previous tender South Korea bought 60,000 MT of optional origin wheat. Philippines passed on offers for the 155,000 MT tender.

Russia’s IKAR raised their 2021 wheat production forecast by 800k MT to 78.8 MMT – citing a mild winter and favorable growing conditions thus far. 

Cash SRW Wheat  is at $5.84 6/7, down 12 3/4 cents,

May 21 CBOT Wheat  is at $6.12, down 12 3/4 cents,

Jul 21 CBOT Wheat  is at $6.07 3/4, down 11 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  is at $5.31 1/6, down 9 1/2 cents,

May 21 KCBT Wheat  is at $5.66 3/4, down 9 1/2 cents,

Jul 21 KCBT Wheat  is at $5.72 3/4, down 9 1/2 cents,

May 21 MGEX Wheat  is at $6.17 3/4, down 9 1/4 cents,

Cattle Higher at Midday

Midday cattle prices are in the black with gains of 47 to 95 cents so far. The bonus Thursday auction on Central Stockyards resulted in no additional sales. Packers bid to $115 but asks were upped to $116. Yesterday’s FCE online auction sold all of the NE fats listed for $116. Southern trade has been $115 for the week so far. Feeder cattle futures are mostly triple digits higher, save for soon to expire March which is just 20 cents in the black at midday. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/23 was 22 cents stronger to $134.86.   

Beef export sales were a 3-week low 18,872 MT. USDA confirmed Japan was the top buyer, followed by South Korea and China. Wholesale Boxed Beef prices for the morning of the 25th were higher. Choice was up $1.32 and Select boxes were $2.64 stronger in the AM quote. USDA’s estimates the week to date FI cattle slaughter at 354k head through Wednesday. That is up 12,000 head on the week, but trails the same week last year by 13,000 head.

Apr 21 Cattle  are at $119.750, up $0.625,

Aug 21 Cattle  are at $120.625, up $0.875,

Mar 21 Feeder Cattle  are at $135.975, up $0.200

Apr 21 Feeder Cattle  are at $143.900, up $1.450

Fresh Highs for Hogs Continue

Lean hog futures gapped higher at the open and are pushing to fresh new highs with midday gains of $0.80 to $1.30. The CME Lean Hog Index was $93.85 on 3/23 after another 37 cent bump. USDA’s National Average Morning Base Hog price for Thursday was a sharp $4.23 stronger to $93.42.  

USDA reported the week’s pork export sales at 38,701 MT with China representing nearly a third. Pork cutout futures are also triple digits stronger with gains of as much as $1.37 at midday. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was up another $3.41 this morning to $113.88. USDA estimated the week’s running hog slaughter under federal inspection at 1.437 million head. That is down from 1.501m head at the same point for the comparative week in 2020.

Apr 21 Hogs  are at $99.000, up $1.225,

Jun 21 Hogs  are at $102.950, up $0.900

Apr 21 Pork Cutout  is at $108.500, up $1.200,

Corn Futures 2 to 3 Cents Lower

Ahead of the Export Sales number corn prices are 2 to 3 cents lower. Wednesday’s corn trading came to a close with old crop futures 2 to 3 cents in the black. Money continues to leave the May contract, with preliminary OI down another 6,773 contracts on Wednesday. Overall corn open interest was down 2,814 contracts. New crop futures on the other hand ended the midweek session fractionally to 1 1/4 cents in the red.  

Export Sales estimates for corn bookings during the week ending 3/18 range 3.8 MMT to 4.7 MMT. The large sales to China announced last week (3.876 MMT) will be included in this report. New crop bookings are estimated to come in below 500k MT.

EIA production data showed ethanol production averaged 922,000 barrels per day in the week ending 3/19. That was down 49,000 bpd wk/wk, and remains 5.4% below BC levels. Ethanol stocks rose 469,000 barrels during the week to 21.809 million. That was the first weekly increase to stocks for over 5 weeks. Crude Oil prices are recovering for the midweek session after two sharp +5% drops recently, citing the Suez Canal backup. 

May 21 Corn  closed at $5.53 1/4, down 3 ¾ cents this morning,

Jul 21 Corn  closed at $5.37 1/4,down 3 1/2 cents this morning,

Nearby Cash was $5.38 3/7 yesterday, up 2 1/4 cents,

Dec 21 Corn  closed at $4.69, now down 2 ½ cents,

New Crop Cash was $4.41 3/5 yesterday, down 3/4 cent,

Soybeans Lower Ahead of Export Sales Data

Overnight soy futures have worked lower and are 6 to 9 cents lower going into the USDA Export Sales report. Soybean futures ended the midweek session with gains of as much as 10 1/4 cents. Soymeal closed $2.00 to $2.50/ton in the black. Soybean oil futures closed the Wednesday round of trading 46 to 61 points higher.

Trade estimates ahead of USDA’s weekly Export Sales report call for 100,000 to 450,000 MT of old crop soybeans sold in the week ending 3/18. New crop bean sales are expected to remain below 200,000 MT. For soymeal, traders are looking for 100,000 to 300,000 MT to be reported. Soybean oil bookings are expected to come in between 5k and 30k MT.

May 21 Soybeans  closed at $14.32 3/4, now trading down 9 cents,

Jul 21 Soybeans  closed at $14.21, now down 9 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash was $14.02 3/8 yesterday, up 9 3/4 cents,

Nov 21 Soybeans  closed at $12.28 1/4, now down 6 3/4 cents,

New Crop Cash was $11.77 1/2 yesterday, up 4 5/8 cents,

Hogs Post New Contract Highs

Lean hog futures posted new LOC highs for April and May contracts yesterday. The 3/22 CME Lean Hog Index was another 76 cents higher to $93.47. USDA’s National Average Afternoon Base Hog price for Wednesday was $92.18, up by 71 cents.

Pork cutout futures closed $0.70 to $1.27 higher on Wednesday with all nearbys comfortably above $100 cwt. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was up a sharp $4.69 to $110.47 on strength in hams and picnics. Hams were $15.07 higher to $98.20 which is the highest price since November. Picnic cuts were also $10.79 higher to levels not seen since last May. USDA estimated the week to date hog slaughter under federal inspection at 1.437 million head. That is down from 1.501m head at the same point in 2020.

Apr 21 Hogs  closed at $97.775, up $1.300,

Jun 21 Hogs  closed at $102.050, up $0.800

Apr 21 Pork Cutout  closed at $107.150, up $1.275,

Cotton Futures Continuing Grind Lower

Ahead of the weekly Export Sales report cotton prices are  69 to 76 points below where they went 德州手机游戏免费下载home on Wednesday. The dollar is stronger, and stock market futures are lower. Yesterday cotton futures added another triple digits to the downside. Old crop futures were down 108 and 109 points, which for May left the board 6.76 cents below the month’s open. A strong dollar isn’t helping, with the DX futures hitting the highest mark since last November on Wednesday evening.

USDA’s DSQ report doe 3/24 showed just 577 bales were sold at spot in the E TX/OK and W TX regions. The Cotlook A index was 90.50 cents/lb on 3/23 for no change. The AWP for cotton is 71.45 cents/lb, and will be updated after the close.

May 21 Cotton  closed at 82.44, now down another 68 points,

Jul 21 Cotton  closed at 83.52, now down 72 points,

Dec 21 Cotton  closed at 80.38, currently down 69 points

Cattle Futures Attempt Rally on Steady to Higher Cash Trade

Cattle futures settled UNCH to 82 cents higher yesterday. The weekly FCE online auction sold 1,545 of the 2,301 head listed. All of the listed NE cattle were sold for $116, while the completed deals in the South were for $115. Central Stockyards is hosting a Thursday auction for the unsold lots. Southern cattle traded hands at $115 yesterday. Feeder cattle futures closed with triple digit gains of as much as $2.70. March feeders were 32 cents higher to $135.77. They will expire today. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/22 was $134.64, up by 38 cents.   

Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were mixed on Wednesday, widening the spread to $10.77. Choice boxes were up another 85 cents, while Select was down by $1.16. USDA’s estimates the week to date FI cattle slaughter at 354k head through Wednesday. That is up 12,000 head on the week, but trails the same week last year by 13,000 head.

Apr 21 Cattle  closed at $119.125, unch,

Aug 21 Cattle  closed at $119.750, up $0.650,

Mar 21 Feeder Cattle  closed at $135.775, up $0.325

Apr 21 Feeder Cattle  closed at $142.450, up $2.700

Wheat Futures Lower Again This Morning

Wheat markets are another 4 to 7 cents lower this morning. CBT futures posted 5 1/4 to 10 cent losses on Wednesday, which for May left the board 37 3/4 cents under the price level at the start of the month. Net new selling interest was noted, with preliminary open interest rising 3,941 contracts. KC wheat futures closed 5 to 6 cents in the red on Wednesday, as May is now down 59.75 cents since beginning March. MPLS wheat futures closed down by 2 3/4 to 3 1/4 cents.

Ahead of the weekly Export Sales report, traders expected USDA to report 150,000 to 500,000 MT of wheat bookings for the week ending 3/18. New crop wheat sales are estimated between 50,000 and 200,000 MT.

Cash SRW Wheat  was $5.97 5/8 yesterday, down 10 cents,

May 21 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.24 3/4, trading 7 1/2 cents lower this morning,

Jul 21 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.18 3/4, now down 6 1/4 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  was $5.40 2/3 yesterday, down 5 3/4 cents,

May 21 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.76 1/4, now down 4 1/4 cents,

Jul 21 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.82 1/4, down 6 cents,

May 21 MGEX Wheat  closed at $6.27, now trading 4 1/2 cents lower,

Cattle Complex Closes in Black

The Wednesday cattle complex ended 25 to 82 cents higher. The weekly FCE online auction sold 1,545 of the 2,301 head listed. All of the listed NE cattle were sold for $116, while the completed deals in the South were for $115. Outside of the FCE, Southern cattle traded hands at $115. Feeder cattle futures closed with triple digit gains of as much as $2.70. March feeders were 32 cents higher to $135.77 with 1,388 contracts of OI (as of 3/23) ahead of tomorrow’s expiration. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/22 was $134.64, up by 38 cents.   

Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were mixed on Wednesday, widening the spread to $10.77. Choice boxes were up another 85 cents, while Select was down by $1.16. USDA’s estimates the week to date FI cattle slaughter at 354k head through Wednesday. That is up 12,000 head on the week, but trails the same week last year by 13,000 head.

Apr 21 Cattle  closed at $119.125, unch,

Aug 21 Cattle  closed at $119.750, up $0.650,

Mar 21 Feeder Cattle  closed at $135.775, up $0.325

Apr 21 Feeder Cattle  closed at $142.450, up $2.700

New Highs for Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures posted new LOC highs for April and May contracts. The front months pulled back from the new highs for the close but April was still triple digits in the black. The 3/22 CME Lean Hog Index was another 76 cents higher to $93.47. USDA’s National Average Afternoon Base Hog price for Wednesday was $92.18, up by 71 cents. The ECB regional base price was $90.43 while the WCB regional base price was $94.31.

Trade estimates ahead of the Thursday quarterly Hogs and Pigs report show analysts expect a slight increase to the hog inventory with the average estimate for 76.23m head. Breeding inventory is estimated at 6.293m head, down 1.3% yr/yr if realized. Market hogs are expected to be up 0.2% yr/yr.

Pork cutout futures closed $0.70 to $1.27 higher on Wednesday with all nearbys comfortably above $100 cwt. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was up a sharp $4.69 to $110.47 on strength in hams and picnics. Hams were $15.07 higher to $98.20 which is the highest price since November. Picnic cuts were also $10.79 higher to levels not seen since last May. USDA estimated the week’s running hog slaughter under federal inspection at 1.437 million head. That is down from 1.501m head at the same point for the comparative week in 2020.

Apr 21 Hogs  closed at $97.775, up $1.300,

Jun 21 Hogs  closed at $102.050, up $0.800

Apr 21 Pork Cutout  closed at $107.150, up $1.275,

Soy Rally Continues through Wednesday

Soybean futures ended the midweek session with gains of as much as 10 1/4 cents. Soymeal traded off the intraday lows and ended $2.00 to $2.50/ton in the black. Soybean oil futures closed the Wednesday round of trading 46 to 61 points higher.

Trade estimates ahead of USDA’s weekly Export Sales report call for 100,000 to 450,000 MT of old crop soybeans sold in the week ending 3/18. New crop bean sales are expected to remain below 200,000 MT. For soymeal, traders are looking for 100,000 to 300,000 MT to be reported. Soybean oil bookings are expected to come in between 5k and 30k MT.

Argentina’s SOEA union withdrew planned strikes as meetings with policy makers are scheduled.

May 21 Soybeans  closed at $14.32 3/4, up 9 1/2 cents,

Jul 21 Soybeans  closed at $14.21, up 9 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash was $14.02 3/8, up 9 3/4 cents,

Nov 21 Soybeans  closed at $12.28 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents,

New Crop Cash was $11.77 2/5, up 4 5/8 cents,

Triple Digit Losses Continue for Cotton

Cotton futures followed the triple digit loss yesterday with another penny loss on Wednesday. Old crop futures were down 108 and 109 points, which for May left the board 6.76 cents below the month’s open. New crop prices are down 116 to 131 points so far. A strong dollar isn’t helping, with the DX hitting the highest mark since November.

USDA’s DSQ report doe 3/24 showed just 577 bales were sold at spot in the E TX/OK and W TX regions. The Cotlook A index was 90.50 cents/lb on 3/23 for no change. The AWP for cotton is 71.45 cents/lb, and will be updated tomorrow after the close.

May 21 Cotton  closed at 82.44, down 109 points,

Jul 21 Cotton  closed at 83.52, down 108 points,

Dec 21 Cotton  closed at 80.38, down 94 points

Corn Closes Midweek Mixed

Wednesday’s corn trading came to a close with old crop futures 2 to 3 cents in the black. New crop futures on the other hand ended the midweek session fractionally to 1 1/4 cents in the red.  

EIA production data showed ethanol production averaged 922,000 barrels per day in the week ending 3/19. That was down 49,000 bpd wk/wk, and remains 5.4% below BC levels. Ethanol stocks rose 469,000 barrels during the week to 21.809 million. That was the first weekly increase to stocks for over 5 weeks. Crude Oil prices are recovering for the midweek session after two sharp +5% drops recently, citing the Suez Canal backup. 

Export Sales estimates for corn bookings during the week ending 3/18 range 3.8 MMT to 4.7 MMT. The large sales to China announced last week will be included in this report. New crop bookings are estimated to come in below 500k MT.

May 21 Corn  closed at $5.53 1/4, up 2 cents,

Jul 21 Corn  closed at $5.37 1/4, up 3 cents,

Nearby Cash was $5.38 3/7, up 2 1/4 cents,

Dec 21 Corn  closed at $4.69, down 3/4 cent,

New Crop Cash was $4.41 3/5, down 3/4 cent,

Wheat Weakness Continues through Wednesday

After a Turnaround Tuesday bounce back, wheat bears resumed selling today. CBT futures closed out the day with 5 1/4 to 10 cent losses, which for May left the board 37 3/4 cents under the price level at the start of the month. KC wheat futures closed 5 to 6 cents in the red on Wednesday, as May is now down 59.75 cents since beginning March. MPLS wheat futures closed down by 2 3/4 to 3 1/4 cents.

Ahead of the weekly Export Sales report on Thursday morning, traders expect USDA to report 150,000 to 500,000 MT of wheat bookings for the week ending 3/18. New crop wheat sales are estimated between 50,000 and 200,000 MT.

Cash SRW Wheat  was $5.97 5/8, down 10 cents,

May 21 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.24 3/4, down 10 cents,

Jul 21 CBOT Wheat  closed at $6.18 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  was $5.40 2/3, down 5 3/4 cents,

May 21 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.76 1/4, down 5 3/4 cents,

Jul 21 KCBT Wheat  closed at $5.82 1/4, down 6 cents,

May 21 MGEX Wheat  closed at $6.27, down 3 1/4 cents,

Wheat Turns Back Lower

Domestic wheat futures are trading in the red at midday after a Turnaround Tuesday session. CBT futures are 5 to 8 1/2 cents in the red. KC wheat futures are down 5 to 6 cents so far for the midweek session. MPLS wheat futures are 4 3/4 to 6 cents in the red.

Ahead of the weekly Export Sales report on Thursday morning, traders expect USDA to report 150,000 to 500,000 MT of wheat bookings for the week ending 3/18. New crop wheat sales are estimated between 50,000 and 200,000 MT.

Cash SRW Wheat  is at $5.98 3/5, down 9 cents,

May 21 CBOT Wheat  is at $6.25 3/4, down 9 cents,

Jul 21 CBOT Wheat  is at $6.19 1/4, down 7 cents,

Cash HRW Wheat  is at $5.40 1/3, down 6 cents,

May 21 KCBT Wheat  is at $5.76, down 6 cents,

Jul 21 KCBT Wheat  is at $5.82 1/4, down 6 cents,

May 21 MGEX Wheat  is at $6.24 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents,

Hogs Up Triple Digits

Lean hog futures are up another triple digits at midday for the midweek session, setting new contract highs in the process. The 3/22 CME Lean Hog Index was another 76 cents higher to $93.47. USDA’s National Average Afternoon Base Hog price was $0.23 lower to $89.19.

Trade estimates ahead of the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report show analysts expect a slight increase to the hog inventory with the average estimate for 76.23m head. Breeding inventory is estimated at 6.293m head, down 1.3% yr/yr if realized. Market hogs are expected to be up 0.2% yr/yr.

Pork cutout futures are also triple digits higher, with all nearbys above $100 cwt. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was reported at $109.64 in the AM report after another $3.86 increase. Hams and picnic cuts were each more than $13 cwt. higher. USDA estimated Tuesday’s hog slaughter at 476,000 head. The week’s running total is 957,000 after revising Monday lower.

Apr 21 Hogs  are at $97.575, up $1.100,

Jun 21 Hogs  are at $102.125, up $0.875

Apr 21 Pork Cutout  is at $107.200, up $1.325,

Cattle Higher on Strength in Cash

The Wednesday cattle complex is in the black at midday with gains of 17 to 55 cents. The weekly FCE online auction has sold 1,545 of the 2,301 head listed. All of the listed NE cattle were sold for $116, while the completed deals in the South were for $115. Feeder cattle futures are up triple digits so far with April leading the rally. The CME Feeder Cattle Index for 3/19 was $134.64, up by 38 cents.   

Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were mixed in the morning report, widening the spread $11.52. Choice boxes were up another $1.12 to $235.11. Select boxes were $1.64 weaker to $223.59. USDA’s estimated FI cattle slaughter at 117k head for Tuesday, bringing week to date slaughter to 233,000.

Apr 21 Cattle  are at $119.225, up $0.100,

Aug 21 Cattle  are at $119.600, up $0.500,

Mar 21 Feeder Cattle  are at $135.925, up $0.475

Apr 21 Feeder Cattle  are at $142.150, up $2.400

Triple Digit Losses Continue for Cotton

Cotton is triple digits weaker again as the down trend continues. Old crop prices are 108 to 113 points in the red, adding to the triple digit losses from yesterday. New crop prices are down 116 to 131 points so far. A strong dollar isn’t helping, with the DX hitting the highest reading since November overnight.

USDA’s DSQ report showed 1,579  bales were sold in the 3/23 report. The Seam reported 1,402 bales sold on 3/22 for an average gross price of 63.36 cents. The Cotlook A index was 90.50 cents/lb on 3/23 for no change. The AWP for cotton is 71.45 cents/lb, and will be updated tomorrow after the close.

May 21 Cotton  is at 82.45, down 108 points,

Jul 21 Cotton  is at 83.47, down 113 points,

Dec 21 Cotton  is at 80.16, down 116 points

Beans Gaining on Higher Veg Oil

Front month soybean futures ae 4 3/4 to 7 3/4 cents higher so far at midday. Soymeal futures are trading with a dime drop in May, but 20 to 30 cent gains in the other nearbys. Soybean oil futures are trading 52 to 69 points in the black so far, again leading the rally.

Trade estimates ahead of USDA’s weekly Export Sales report call for 100,000 to 450,000 MT of old crop soybeans sold in the week ending 3/18. New crop bean sales are expected to remain below 200,000 MT. For soymeal, traders are looking for 100,000 to 300,000 MT to be reported. Soybean oil bookings are expected t come in between 5k and 30k MT.

Argentina’s SOEA union publicly confirmed intentions to withdraw planned strikes as meetings with policy makers are scheduled.

May 21 Soybeans  are at $14.28, up 4 3/4 cents,

Jul 21 Soybeans  are at $14.18, up 6 3/4 cents,

Nearby Cash is at $13.97 1/2, up 4 7/8 cents,

Nov 21 Soybeans  are at $12.26 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents,

New Crop Cash is at $11.75 1/1, up 3 1/4 cents,

Corn Futures in Red at Midday

Midweek corn prices are firm to a penny lower in old crop. New crop corn futures are 2 to 2 1/2 cents lower so far – furthering the inverse.  

EIA production data showed ethanol production averaged 922,000 barrels per day in the week ending 3/19. That was down 49,000 bpd wk/wk, and remains 5.4% below BC levels. Ethanol stocks rose 469,000 barrels during the week to 21.809 million. That was the first weekly increase to stocks for over 5 weeks. Crude Oil prices are recovering for the midweek session after two sharp +5% drops recently. 

Export Sales estimates for corn bookings during the week ending 3/18 range 3.8 MMT to 4.7 MMT. The large sales to China announced last week will be included in this report. New crop bookings are estimated to come in below 500k MT.

May 21 Corn  is at $5.50 1/4, down 1 cent,

Jul 21 Corn  is at $5.34, down 1/4 cent,

Nearby Cash is at $5.35 1/5, down 1 cent,

Dec 21 Corn  is at $4.67 3/4, down 2 cents,

New Crop Cash is at $4.40 2/7, down 2 cents,


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com